Ukraine has unleashed its counter-offensive to break through Russian defences and force Vladimir Putin’s troops to retreat, military experts said on Thursday.
The Institute for the Study of War stressed that “activity throughout Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counter-offensive operations are underway” across the battle zone.
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But the Washington-based think tank also warned that Ukraine may suffer its heaviest casualties at the start of the counter-offensive as its military seeks to breach the Russian lines.
It came after British defence chiefs said that Ukrainian forces had seized the “initiative” in heavy fighting in several areas of the frontline.
There were also earlier reports from Russian sources of an attempted major advance in the south eastern Zaporizhzhia province.
Two senior US officials told CNN that Ukrainian forces suffered losses in heavy equipment and soldiers as they ran into tougher than expected resistance as they sought to break Russian lines in recent days.
But it was not yet confirmed whether this was a battlefield “probing” move or a significant escalation in the widely-expected counter-offensive.
How successful, or not, it had been was also yet to emerge.
However, a breakthrough here could damage the Russian “land bridge” between most of its forces in Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula which Moscow annexed in 2014.about:blank
The battle for the eastern town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk province of the Donbas region was continuing with Ukrainian troops reported to be advancing on its flanks.
Bakhmut, captured last month by Vladimir Putin’s Wagner Group ‘private army”, has been largely destroyed in some of the fiercest battles in Europe since the Second World War.
Wagner and regular Russian troops are estimated by western officials to have suffered 60,000 casualties in the fighting for the town, with around a third of them fatalities, with Ukrainian forces also suffering heavy losses.
In its latest intelligence update on Thursday, the Ministry of Defence in London said: “Amidst a highly complex operational picture, heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front. In most areas Ukraine holds the initiative.
“Russian forces are likely still being ordered to return to the offensive as soon as possible.
“Chechen units have led an unsuccessful attempt to take the town of Marivka, near Donetsk city, where the front line has changed little since 2015.”
The Institute for the Study of War said Russian sources were claiming that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia provinces on June 7.
The Washington-based think tank added that Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly also engaged in skirmishes in western Zaporizhzhia.
Later on Thursday, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said his forces had repelled large-scale overnight attempts by Ukrainian troops to break through the frontline in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and had inflicted heavy losses on them.
These claims could not be independently verified and need to be treated with caution given the propaganda issued by the Kremlin and defence ministry in Moscow.
He alleged Russian forces had repelled four separate overnight Ukrainian attacks along the southern front and that Kyiv’s forces had been forced to retreat.
“At 1.30 a.m. today the enemy attempted to break through our defences in the Zaporizhzhia direction with forces from the 47th Mechanised Brigade numbering up to 1,500 men and 150 armoured vehicles,” Shoigu said in a statement.
“The enemy was detected in time by our reconnaissance forces and a preventative strike was delivered by our artillery and aviation forces and using anti-tank weapons.”
Shoigu alleged that Ukraine had lost 30 tanks, 11 armoured infantry vehicles and up to 350 soldiers. He gave even higher figures for Ukrainian losses purportedly suffered over a 24-hour period yesterday.
Previous Russian claims about fighting around the eastern town of Bakhmut have failed to fully recognise Ukrainian successes on the flanks so even if the Russians repelled four attacks, it may be that others also took place but were not being highlighted.
The UK defence briefing also stressed: “Through 07 June 2023, flood levels continued to rise in the lower Dnipro (River), following the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam, but will likely start to recede during 08 June 2023.
“Shelling has complicated some attempts to evacuate displaced civilians from inundated areas.”
The flooding was said to have caused major damage to Russian first defensive lines on the east side of the vast Dnipro River, as well as forcing thousands of people to flee their homes, and leaving many animals dead.
Moscow was being increasingly blamed for the dam breach on Tuesday as it was controlled by Russian forces.
Britain has not directly blamed Russia for blowing up the dam which has caused widespread flooding including in the southern city of Kherson.
But Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow was responsible for the “ecocide” crime.
In his overnight address, he also appealed for a huge humanitarian global response to the flooding crisis.
He said: “The situation in the occupied part of Kherson region is absolutely catastrophic.
“The occupiers simply abandoned people in these terrible conditions. Without rescue, without water, just on the rooftops in flooded communities.”
He added: “Now we need a clear and quick response from the world to what is happening. It is even impossible to establish for sure how many people in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson region may die without rescue, without drinking water, without food, without medical care.
“Our military and special services are rescuing people as much as it is possible, despite the shelling.
“But large-scale efforts are needed. We need international organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, to immediately join the rescue operation and help people in the occupied part of Kherson region.
“Each person who dies there is a verdict on the existing international architecture and international organizations that have forgotten how to save lives.”
Around 14,000 houses have been flooded after Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam burst, with around 4,300 people evacuated, Russian state-owned news agency TASS cited the country’s security services as saying on Thursday.
Around 600 sq km of Ukraine’s southern Kherson region is under water, 68 per cent of which are located on the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River, the regional governor said on Thursday.
Oleksandr Prokudin wrote on the Telegram messaging app that the average water level as of Thursday morning was 5.61 meters.
The World Bank will support Ukraine by conducting a rapid assessment of damages and needs after the destruction of a huge hydroelectric dam on front lines between Russian and Ukrainian forces, a top bank official said.
Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s managing director for operations, in a tweet said the destruction of the Kakhovka dam had “many very serious consequences for essential service delivery and the broader environment.”
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, also writing on Twitter, said he spoke with Ms Bjerde about the impact of the dam’s collapse, and she assured him the World Bank would carry out a rapid assessment of the damages and needs.
Source : EveningStandard
